Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 22.587364 24.561636 26.690230 29.166200 31.980212 35.094536 38.823508
2026-01-04 19.364340 22.049194 25.143652 29.014763 33.786521 39.555716 47.184717
2026-01-11 17.304972 20.423615 24.213417 29.247377 35.900841 44.611456 57.270998
2026-01-18 15.579732 18.903664 23.114049 28.984464 37.210071 48.752765 67.046364
2026-01-25 14.282788 17.730326 22.251233 28.821834 38.515329 53.009172 77.968704
2026-02-01 13.283557 16.815507 21.588079 28.783942 39.908422 57.562955 90.548088
2026-02-08 12.422840 15.989353 20.934139 28.632889 41.043839 61.853099 103.910876
2026-02-15 11.683057 15.256253 20.323378 28.441970 42.039216 66.044024 118.437161
2026-02-22 11.039857 14.602018 19.756129 28.231028 42.934044 70.190621 134.371364
2026-03-01 10.513176 14.072485 19.320727 28.166270 44.046079 74.951567 153.687248
2026-03-08 10.042294 13.588728 18.909044 28.083459 45.092658 79.788410 175.479009
2026-03-15 9.833578 13.480514 19.066858 28.973543 48.093529 89.519101 216.676347
2026-03-22 9.375119 12.970123 18.558755 28.670456 48.767298 94.325510 246.504374
2026-03-29 9.005262 12.575867 18.211642 28.624320 49.972769 100.806127 287.771032
2026-04-05 8.725851 12.306256 18.048955 28.899035 51.908246 109.785300 348.274490
2026-04-12 8.379182 11.908090 17.639588 28.661278 52.676064 115.872725 403.372369
2026-04-19 8.075280 11.561777 17.294064 28.510491 53.619704 122.819983 473.147289
2026-04-26 7.813790 11.270200 17.022727 28.477357 54.837874 131.084135 565.735803
2026-05-03 7.553960 10.967462 16.711062 28.330444 55.756648 138.774831 671.770366
2026-05-10 7.306471 10.672862 16.394901 28.143204 56.547153 146.396161 798.566687
2026-05-17 7.072798 10.390340 16.083136 27.935760 57.256491 154.084927 952.964945
2026-05-24 6.874104 10.157985 15.848888 27.872125 58.346749 163.798610 1174.090810
2026-05-31 6.685272 9.933860 15.616409 27.790610 59.380704 173.862343 1461.316434